Spoiler: We’re all douchebags within a various degree.
The world runs on a special fuel made from blended confidence and bullshit.
The most dangerous predator in the business ecosystem isn’t the smart person. It’s the certain person and this applies in every aspect of the world we’re so happily sucked in to.
Meanwhile, the person who actually knows what they’re talking about is usually the quiet one saying things like “I think we should test that assumption” or “the data suggests otherwise.” But nobody listens because uncertainty sounds like weakness to primate brains wired for tribal hierarchies.
(The little meat computer in between our ears can be an absolute bastard to deal with)
The Confidence Industrial Complex
The self-help industry is a $10 billion machine that sells confidence like it’s miracle-grow for success. “BELIEVE IN YOURSELF!” they shout, as if mere belief will transform your mediocre startup into Amazon.
Here’s what they don’t tell you though. The graveyard of failed businesses is packed with the corpses of ventures led by supremely confident CEOs. Their tombstones read something like this:
“HE WAS CERTAIN. HE WAS WRONG. NOW HE’S DEAD.”
How to Not Be a Confidence Drunk Moron
When someone never expresses doubt, run. They’re either delusional or lying.
Actual expertise looks like nuance and specific knowledge, not broad, sweeping certainty.
The phrase “I don’t know” generally comes from people who know their shit, or at least have battle tested it and survived the tale.
But if you look at the world now, especially in politics and business. The loud wrongness gets promoted over quiet competence.
The most dangerous words in life and business might just be “I’m absolutely certain.”
You need to doubt appropriately and be a little sceptical, otherwise you’re just going to get caught by the douchebags that are little more confident than you and that swing, is wild.
Stephen Walker